The Congress social gathering is gearing up for the Haryana meeting elections, which might be held on October 5 with outcomes introduced on October 8. The social gathering is finalising its candidate record and has determined to not announce a chief ministerial candidate, opting as an alternative for a mixed management mannequin.
The Congress has additionally resumed talks with the Aam Aadmi Celebration (AAP) relating to a possible alliance. Though the 2 beforehand contested the 2024 normal elections collectively, early indications steered they might go their very own methods within the meeting polls.
Assured after its robust efficiency within the normal elections, the place it matched the Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) with 5 seats every, the Congress believes it has a great probability in state elections.
Within the normal elections, the BJP led in 44 meeting segments, the Congress in 42, and the AAP in 4. By way of vote share, the BJP acquired 46%, the Congress 44%, and the AAP 4% votes.
No CM Face to Curb Factionalism
After the CEC assembly on Monday, Congress chief Ajay Singh Yadav introduced that the social gathering wouldn’t undertaking a chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming Haryana meeting elections. The ultimate choice on the chief ministership might be made by the excessive command after the elections.
AAP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh emphasised that defeating the BJP ought to be the precedence for the INDIA bloc. He famous that the social gathering’s Nationwide Common Secretary (Group) Sandeep Pathak would interact in talks with Congress if the proposal gained momentum. “The ultimate choice might be made by Arvind Kejriwal,” Singh instructed reporters.
AAP’s Haryana chief, Sushil Gupta, acknowledged his private opinion that the social gathering mustn’t accept 4 to 5 seats however left the ultimate choice to Delhi Chief Minister and AAP Nationwide Convenor Kejriwal. Studies additionally point out that AAP Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha is concerned in back-channel negotiations with Congress management.
Interesting To Broad Teams
At present, former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupender Singh Hooda is main the Congress effort, however a faction together with Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala is reportedly sad with Hooda consolidating energy.
Kiran Choudhury, who was a part of this faction, left the social gathering for the BJP after her daughter was denied a ticket within the Lok Sabha elections. The choice to not announce a chief ministerial candidate is seen as a transfer to curb factionalism and enchantment to a broader citizens.
This technique goals to keep away from a Jat versus non-Jat contest. The Congress, underneath Hooda’s management, is perceived as representing Jat pursuits. The BJP has exploited Jat versus non-Jat dynamics to its benefit in earlier polls. Congress is specializing in a coalition of Jats, Dalits, and Muslims. Dalits, who make up 20% of the inhabitants, are essential. Kumari Selja’s position as a Dalit face and the non-announcement of a CM candidate assist preserve hope throughout the Dalit neighborhood.
Based on a CSDS post-poll research, 64% of Jats and 68% of Dalits voted for the INDIA bloc within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress hopes this choice will assist retain the vast majority of Dalit votes.
Potential Alliance With AAP
The Congress-AAP alliance carried out nicely within the normal elections, successful 5 seats and securing a 48% vote share. Though AAP contested the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat and misplaced, it led in 4 meeting segments and garnered a 4% vote share. The AAP’s solo run may cut up the opposition vote and probably profit the BJP.
The Congress goals to keep away from a repeat of the 2019 situation when the Jannayak Janata Celebration (JJP), led by Dushyant Chautala, seemingly spoiled its probabilities. The JJP’s 10 seats, largely from Jat-dominated areas, harm the Congress’s prospects.
Each events initially deliberate to go solo, however last-minute discussions on the excessive command stage revived talks. The AAP is reportedly demanding 10 seats, whereas the Congress is at the moment providing two to 3.
The Bania neighborhood, comprising 4% of the inhabitants, Aroras/Punjabis/Khatris (7%), and Sikhs (5%) are vital demographics in Haryana. The AAP has pockets of affect amongst these teams in Delhi and Punjab and is anticipated to realize some help in Haryana as nicely.
Within the 2024 normal elections, the BJP led in 19 of 23 city seats, whereas the Congress led in solely 4. In rural Haryana’s 60 seats, the Congress led in 34, and the BJP in 22. The AAP is believed to have appreciable affect in city areas, significantly these bordering Delhi and Punjab, the place Congress’s weak seats are positioned.
This technique permits Congress to concentrate on strengthening its place in its robust Jat-dominated area whereas leveraging AAP’s affect in weaker areas to maximise positive aspects within the meeting elections.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a company and funding banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the creator