The Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) has made historical past in Haryana by successful a file third time period, defying all pollsters, and political pundits. Following a setback within the normal elections, the place the BJP misplaced 5 seats to Congress, the occasion went again to the drafting board, tightened its methods, and quietly ran a marketing campaign aimed toward retaining the state and gaining pro-incumbency votes.
Within the Lok Sabha elections held six months in the past, the BJP was main in 44 meeting segments, whereas the Congress-Aam Aadmi Occasion (AAP) alliance was forward in 46, with respective vote shares of 44% and 46%. The development of the BJP dropping seats and vote share in state elections in comparison with Lok Sabha polls gave Congress the boldness that it might win the state, leveraging assist from wrestlers, farmers, and Agniveer protests.
So, why precisely did Congress lose?
1. Overconfidence
That is the third state election after Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the place the Congress, projected because the favorite, suffered a surprising defeat. The occasion’s defeat demonstrated that the BJP has the higher hand in direct one-on-one contests. Even with beneficial circumstances, victory can’t be declared till the final vote is counted. Many YouTube journalists predicting a Congress victory contributed to a way of complacency.
2. Factionalism
Intense factionalism plagued the occasion, with senior leaders Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Kumari Selja, and Randeep Singh Surjewala at odds. The Hooda camp dominated ticket distribution, marginalising different factions. Selja abstained from campaigning for a lot of days, prompting Rahul Gandhi to intervene at a rally to emphasize occasion unity.
3. Failure To Handle Rebels And Forge Alliances
The occasion confronted 29 rebels within the fray, which it did not handle successfully. In distinction, the BJP, which was in energy, had 19 rebels. In Haryana, independents and smaller events play a major function; an evaluation signifies that 17 of those rebels harm the Congress’s prospects. The AAP, which was an ally throughout the normal elections, was not accommodated and claims it negatively impacted Congress in 4 seats.
4. Restricted Advantages
Within the 2024 normal elections, Congress secured 68% of the Dalit and 51% of the OBC votes, resulting in a 14% drop in BJP’s vote share. Within the state elections, Congress gained round 11% of the vote share largely on the expense of the Jannayak Janta Occasion (JJP), which was routed with lower than 1% of the vote, dropping 15% in comparison with 2019. Nonetheless, the JJP’s vote share was concentrated in Hisar and Gurugram, limiting Congress’s statewide profit.
Moreover, the BJP elevated its vote share from 37% to 40%. For the Congress to win, it wanted to considerably dent the BJP’s vote share, which it did not do within the state polls.
5. Silent Non-Jat Consolidation
The BJP’s technique of appointing Khattar and later Saini successfully engaged non-Jat voters. Brahmins, Baniyas, Khatris, OBCs, and sure SC teams believed they may solely get a member from their group as Chief Minister via the BJP, not Congress. The dominance of the Hooda household might have contributed to a notion of Jat-centric politics inside Congress.
This influential group’s discontent might have led some voters, sad with the BJP, to chorus from switching to the Congress. The BJP efficiently framed the competition as Jats versus non-Jats, benefiting in areas like Ahirwal, Braj, and the GT Street Belt.
6. Congress Could not Sweep Even the Jat Belt
Within the 37 seats the place the Jat group includes greater than 20% of the citizens, positioned primarily within the Rohtak and Hisar divisions, there was a three-way cut up in 2019 between Congress (14), JJP/Others (11), and BJP (12). On this 12 months’s normal elections, Congress benefited from the farmer/wrestler/youth protests, establishing leads in 27 segments. Of the ten seats the JJP misplaced in 2024, six went to Congress and 4 to BJP.
Nonetheless, within the meeting polls, the honours had been shared between the Congress and the BJP on this area, with independents and rebels from the Jat group impacting the Congress’s tally within the area.
7. BJP’s Neutralisation Of Anti-Incumbency
The BJP’s losses within the normal elections stemmed from discontent amongst sure voting segments relating to some insurance policies. As an alternative of operating a nationwide marketing campaign, the BJP fought a really localised election.
To counter native anti-incumbency, the occasion changed its chief and 40% of its MLAs. In distinction, Congress awarded tickets to all its incumbent MLAs, a lot of whom confronted pure anti-incumbency as a result of perceived inaction of their constituencies. This technique backfired for the Congress.
8. RSS Help For BJP
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and BJP, which had beforehand been at odds throughout the normal elections, reconciled their variations. In early September, the RSS launched a rural voter outreach programme, deploying not less than 150 volunteers to every district. Between September 1 and 9, the RSS performed round 90 conferences in every Meeting constituency and practically 200 conferences with occasion employees and rural voters, aiming to strengthen unity and technique.
9. Cut up Of The Dalit Vote
Congress captured 68% of Dalit votes within the 2024 elections by warning that the BJP would change the structure and finish reservations if it gained energy. This narrative was absent within the state polls.
The BJP received eight of 17 reserved constituencies, up from 5 in 2019, whereas Congress elevated its tally to 9 from seven. The JJP, which received 4 reserved seats in 2019 and performed a kingmaker function, ended with none this time. Congress and AAP had led in 13 of those seats throughout the normal elections, resulting in a lack of 4 seats. Denying Kumari Selja a distinguished place on Congress posters and in ticket distribution might have performed a task, because the BJP framed this as an insult to Dalits.
10. Professional-Incumbency
In the end, no authorities can win a file third time period with out successfully engaged on the bottom and positively impacting not less than some segments of the inhabitants. The beneficiaries of varied authorities schemes appeared to have backed the BJP because of the efficient implementation of each central and state initiatives. Moreover, the folks had been happy with the tip of the “kharchi parchi” system in authorities recruitments.
The BJP has perfected the artwork of successful states the place it has held energy for an prolonged interval via a mix of growth work, robust organisation, and tactical manoeuvres.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a company and funding banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the private opinions of the creator